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74 | Zoltán Simon and Tamás Dezső Ziegler
b. Demographic decline
It would be difficult to deny that European societies are not in their best shape
ever. Ivan T. Berend speaks of “dramatic demographic changes” (Berend 2010,
222), while Paul Demeny warns against a “collective national and civilizational
suicide” (Demeny 2016, 111). We cannot ignore, however, that European
countries, including EU Member States, show marked differences in their
demographic features and dynamics. Some countries, such as France, Ireland,
the Netherlands, or Belgium, are on a more sustainable track, while others
are facing major challenges, making it difficult to identify pan-European
solutions in this field (for EU measures see European Commission 2020).
A key factor presented to, and perceived by, Europeans as dramatic news
is the low level of birth and fertility rates across the continent. These data are
sometimes interpreted as an irreversible and irreparable trend, which some
call the “low-fertility trap” (Harper 2018, 44). Well, the crude reality is that
fertility rate is above the replacement level (2.1.) in no single EU Member
State today. In fact, none of them is even close to it: in 2019, France had the
highest rate with 1.86, while eleven EU countries were below 1.5, with Malta
at 1.14 (!), followed by Spain (1.23) and Italy (1.27) in the so-called ‘lowest
low spectrum.
As a matter of fact, there has been no EU-27 society above the replacement
level for a while. In 1990, Cyprus (2.41), Sweden (2.13), and Ireland (2.11) were
still above the bar, before experiencing a steep fall in the decade that followed
(to 1.64, 1.54, and 1.89, respectively). All this against the backdrop ofa decline
in European fertility rates since the 1960s. This trend seemed to hit the ground
around the millennium, with the EU-27 average falling to the 1.44-1.46
spectrum, while it has been oscillating in the 1.53-1.57 margin over the past years.
As a consequence, the number of live births in the EU-27 area (4.15 million
in 2019) is fewer than two-thirds of the peak data (6.69 million) from 1964,
despite the fact that the combined population of current EU Member States
has grown by around one-quarter during the same period (EPRS 2021, 9).
Nevertheless, in reality, the Union has never experienced a shrinking
population so far (we ignore Brexit here). In January 2021, the EU-27
population was estimated at 447 million people. This is projected to
slightly grow in the coming years, and peak around 450 million in
2026, before declining to 441 million in 2050, and 416 million in 2100.
However, the COVID-19 pandemic may have an earlier disruptive effect
through increased mortality, which resulted in the loss of 300,000 lives in 2020
and in decreased birth rates (see e.g. Le Monde 2021).