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170 GÁBOR PIRISI
problem has emerged, meaning that after consistent only-childism for two
generations, a single grandchild would have to take care of four grandparents in
a society in which respect for the aged is a very important organizing principle.
This "hard landing" will eventually result in a fertility rate which continues at a
lower rate than in the country’s major rivals, and this will undermine the
foundations of the Chinese model of economic growth even in the medium term
(Feng et al. 2012). The other problem is well-known in traditional societies with
other restrictive demographic policies: the upsetting of the gender balance. The
only child should be a boy to perpetuate the family’s name and traditions. This
attitude resulted in the practice of sex-selective abortions and a male surplus about
10 % above the normal biological value. Though in a less extreme form, the
phenomenon is present in India as well. It is also questionable how effective or
necessary such a drastic intervention was: in the same time interval in Brazil, for
example, the fertility rate dropped from 4.0 to 1.7 and in Thailand from 3.3 to
1.5 without similarly harsh measures. On the other hand, humankind can be
thankful for such efforts and for restrictions in other countries. They were elicited
by the demographic boom of the 1970s, which might have been alleviated as time
passed, yet it is not far-fetched to declare that without these demographic policy
measures, hundreds of millions more would be living on the Earth today.
The Earth of eight billion people
According to the United Nations estimate, the global population reached the 8
billion mark on 15 November 2022. It made headlines in the media and elicited
much reflection on social media: it has certainly crossed the public’s threshold of
awareness. As is customary with such milestones (the previous one occurred 11
years ago, when the 7 billion mark was hit), the tone of the reflections has been
that of anxiety.
The population of the Earth increased very slowly at the beginning; estimates
put the number of human beings circa 10,000 B.C. at around 5 million. Growth
was obviously not steady, with years or periods in which the number of people
decreased. Some theories propose that humans were on the verge of extinction
several times. Population growth is not presented by data picked randomly. Rather,
we rely ona method that takes into account the periods necessary for the doubling
of the population. These periods — longer at the beginning and getting shorter
later — are called demographic or population cycles. Taking the date 10,000 B.C.
as the starting point, ten such cycles can be differentiated in human history. The
first lasted some 3,000 years, that is, humankind probably numbered 10 million
around 7,000 B.C. The next doubling of the global population “only” needed
2,500 years: around 4500 B.C. there were some 20 million people on Earth. Thanks
to steadily improving productivity and living conditions, the next doubling can
be estimated to have occurred around 2,500 B.C., a mere 2,000 years later, and
this 40 million doubled to 80 million by around 1,000 B.C. When Christ was
born, the planet had maybe 160, or 100, or perhaps 250-300 million people. The
latter estimates also adequately show the great uncertainties of historical demography.
Growth continued at a similarly slow pace in the next 1500 years, dotted with
regional periods of population decline, for instance in Europe after the fall of