Oldal 164 [164]
162 | Zsolt Nagy, Zoltán Simon, Viktor Szép, and Tamás Dezső Ziegler
THE FREE TRADE DEBATE
— Tamás Dezső Ziegler —
As already mentioned, the initial debate over European strategic autonomy
has evolved into a broader discussion, beyond security and defence, and is
now about the EUS strategic sovereignty. As Riccardo Alcaro underlines:
Initially anchored in security and defence, the concept of strategic autonomy has
grown in scope and now encompasses any policy domain with an external dimension
such as the promotion of the euro as a reserve currency, trade, climate and energy,
and digital and technology regulation. (Alcaro 2021, 31)
There is no doubt that trade remains a key EU external policy. A crucial fact
to be kept in mind when analysing strategic sovereignty regarding the Union's
trade relations is that the Western world is projected to lose its dominant share
in world GDP in thirty years’ time. By 2050, the EU’s share in global GDP
will have sunk from 15 to 9 per cent, while China’s GDP will have risen to 20
per cent, and India will have reached 15 per cent (PricewaterhouseCoopers
2017). This is a landslide change, which has the potential to restructure the
balance of world powers, especially as Europe’s global influence has been
based on its economic performance and extensive trade relations.
Nevertheless, the EU seems to follow an unchanged trade approach in
its external relations: unlike the US in the past years (Ziegler 2020), it keeps
promoting the further liberalisation of international trade. The Union is one
of the leading forces behind free trade worldwide and has concluded trade
agreements with many countries across the globe, including some far-away
partners in Central America, South America, or Africa.’
3 To mention just some of the recent deals, the EU signed an economic partnership agreement
with the Southern African Development Community (SADC: Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho,
Namibia, South Africa, and Mozambique) in 2016; created the EU-Ukraine Deep and
Comprehensive Free Trade Area as part of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement in 2017;
concluded a free trade agreement with Mercosur (Hartmann 2021), the EU-Japan Economic
Partnership Agreement, and the EU-Singapore Trade and Investment Agreements in 2019;
renegotiated the Cotonou Agreement (Dreyer, 2021); and is currently working on the EU¬
China Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI).