Oldal 19 [19]
Chapter 1. Foundation
to almost 4.5 billion, and the world population could exceed 10 billion.
Population growth continues to be intense, but there are significant
differences between regions, especially in terms of long-term predictions.
While Europe and North America will grow by only 2% by 2050, the
Sub-Saharan region will double its population. In some countries, migration
will also have a significant impact. The population explosion is undoubtedly
an obstacle to achieving sustainable development objectives. Still, in some
regions (Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Caribbean, and Asia),
there is also an opportunity for the rising generations due to the increase
in the working-age population. We must not forget that climate change
and adverse environmental effects, including the lack of water, are leading
to forced climate migration. Based on the data of the World Bank, it is
estimated that climate change will displace more than 140 million people
within their home countries in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin
America by 2050.° The international legal framework of refugees is also
challenged by environmental migration, as the traditional legal instruments
cannot be applied to climate refugees due to terminological restrictions.
Of course, even if the persons concerned do not qualify as refugees under
convention law, they can seek asylum within the framework provided by
international law, for example, on customary grounds. In recent years,
there have been regional efforts to address the legal situation of climate
refugees. Still, the international community has not yet undertaken to
amend the Geneva Convention’ or to develop relevant international law
in this regard. Until then, the categories of “climate refugees”, “environmental
refugees’, “environmental displacement’, “environmental migration’, and
“disaster displacement” remain unclear and also, how these asylum seekers
must be handled by the states where they arrive.*
Another global environmental issue is the finite nature of resources
and their sustainable exploitation and use. It was only in the 1970s that
the depletion of naturally occurring resources began to attract the attention
of the international community. The speech of US diplomat Adlai Stevenson
at the UN Economic and Social Council meeting is still quoted as an
5 Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100. Available at: https://www.
populationpyramid.net/.
6 The World Bank: Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration. Available at:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/infographic/2018/03/19/groundswell---prepar¬
ing-for-internal-climate-migration.
7 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol (Protocol relating to the Status of
Refugees).
* On climate refugees, see Horvath, Valéria: The Right to Seek Asylum of ‘Climate Refugees.
Acta Humana: Hungarian Centre for Human Rights Publications. Vol. 9. No. 1.2021,
pp. 119-136.
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