Oldal 172 [172]
OCR
170 GÁBOR PIRISI problem has emerged, meaning that after consistent only-childism for two generations, a single grandchild would have to take care of four grandparents in a society in which respect for the aged is a very important organizing principle. This "hard landing" will eventually result in a fertility rate which continues at a lower rate than in the country’s major rivals, and this will undermine the foundations of the Chinese model of economic growth even in the medium term (Feng et al. 2012). The other problem is well-known in traditional societies with other restrictive demographic policies: the upsetting of the gender balance. The only child should be a boy to perpetuate the family’s name and traditions. This attitude resulted in the practice of sex-selective abortions and a male surplus about 10 % above the normal biological value. Though in a less extreme form, the phenomenon is present in India as well. It is also questionable how effective or necessary such a drastic intervention was: in the same time interval in Brazil, for example, the fertility rate dropped from 4.0 to 1.7 and in Thailand from 3.3 to 1.5 without similarly harsh measures. On the other hand, humankind can be thankful for such efforts and for restrictions in other countries. They were elicited by the demographic boom of the 1970s, which might have been alleviated as time passed, yet it is not far-fetched to declare that without these demographic policy measures, hundreds of millions more would be living on the Earth today. The Earth of eight billion people According to the United Nations estimate, the global population reached the 8 billion mark on 15 November 2022. It made headlines in the media and elicited much reflection on social media: it has certainly crossed the public’s threshold of awareness. As is customary with such milestones (the previous one occurred 11 years ago, when the 7 billion mark was hit), the tone of the reflections has been that of anxiety. The population of the Earth increased very slowly at the beginning; estimates put the number of human beings circa 10,000 B.C. at around 5 million. Growth was obviously not steady, with years or periods in which the number of people decreased. Some theories propose that humans were on the verge of extinction several times. Population growth is not presented by data picked randomly. Rather, we rely ona method that takes into account the periods necessary for the doubling of the population. These periods — longer at the beginning and getting shorter later — are called demographic or population cycles. Taking the date 10,000 B.C. as the starting point, ten such cycles can be differentiated in human history. The first lasted some 3,000 years, that is, humankind probably numbered 10 million around 7,000 B.C. The next doubling of the global population “only” needed 2,500 years: around 4500 B.C. there were some 20 million people on Earth. Thanks to steadily improving productivity and living conditions, the next doubling can be estimated to have occurred around 2,500 B.C., a mere 2,000 years later, and this 40 million doubled to 80 million by around 1,000 B.C. When Christ was born, the planet had maybe 160, or 100, or perhaps 250-300 million people. The latter estimates also adequately show the great uncertainties of historical demography. Growth continued at a similarly slow pace in the next 1500 years, dotted with regional periods of population decline, for instance in Europe after the fall of
